In the history of the Tony Awards, races between two contenders are ubiquitous. But a true race between three contenders? That's rare. This is somewhat subjective, but in the last two decades, I'd say we've seen only one race in which at least three nominees were widely considered potential favorites: two years ago, when «Outsiders» went around «Hell's Kitchen» и «Suffolk» in the main category.
Perhaps until this year. The fight may not be as intense as in 2024, but (with all due respect to «Titanic» ) one can make a compelling case for any of the films: «"Schmigadun!"» , «The Lost Boys »" or perhaps , "Two Strangers (Carrying Cake Through New York)"« .
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However, one of these three is still leading. How do we know this? Math. Every year, I input all the Tony Awards data for the season—what other categories the play is nominated in, previous theater awards, aggregate critics' predictions, and betting market data—to determine the odds of each nominee winning in each category. Let's find out who's leading this year in a particularly unpredictable race.
We have three contenders with double-digit votes, but one stands out from the rest: «"Schmigadun!"» , a sunny declaration of love for Golden Age musicals, has a slightly better than 50 percent chance of winning. However, at the Lost Boys« и «Two Strangers (Carrying a Cake Through New York) There are many reasons not to give yourself a cherished goal.
The award for best play isn't that close to the award for best musical. Bess Wohl has already won the Pulitzer Prize for «Liberation» and has a 3 in 5 chance of winning another Tony Award. If there's a splash, it's worth paying attention to David Lindsay-Abaire's play. «Balustrades» , which won Outer Critics Circle Awards and Drama Desk Awards this year.
Musical «"Ragtime"» triumphantly passed all stages of the selection process, becoming the favorite to win the award for "Best Performance." The original Broadway musical won in four categories, but lost «The Lion King» in the finals, while the 2009 revival lost in this category. «"The Cage of the Mad"» ). However, it is worth remembering that «Cats: The Jellicle Ball» debuted Off-Broadway before this season, meaning they weren't eligible for all the same awards that «"Ragtime"» won this year.
The most confident prediction in the four categories of best performances also concerns the most famous title. «Death of a Salesman» , After winning its second Tony Award for Best Play, it subsequently won three more Tony Awards for Best Revival. This will be its fourth Tony Award, doubling its second place on the list of the best play revivals of all time. «View from the Bridge» .
Joshua Henry ( «"Ragtime"» ) will have to beat out his co-star (Brandon Uranowitz) to win the award for Best Actor in a Musical, but it appears he won't have much trouble. He's the favorite to win among this year's 41 acting award nominees.
Cassie Levy ( «"Ragtime"» ) isn't as likely to win as her co-star Joshua Henry, but her chances of winning are slightly better than 50-50, well ahead of runner-up Marla Mindell ( «Titanic» ). If Henry and Levi win in Ragtime« , it will be only the third time this century that a musical has won in both major acting categories. The first two were «Hairspray» (2003) and «The Orchestra's Visit» (2018).
John Lithgow. Nathan Lane. It's a classic heavyweight title fight. This is only the 15th time in Tony Awards history that two award-winning actors have faced off. Of the previous 14, only four times has one of these multiple winners won their category (the other 10 years, both were won by a relatively new actor). This matchup has all the makings of a terrific Tony Award showdown.
This is the Tony Award, which has been sought after for nearly 2,500 years. Since the inception of the Tony Awards, six productions of ancient Greek classics have been staged on Broadway. «"Oedipus"» , but none of them ever won a Tony. This year, it looks like that will change: Lesley Manville is the leading contender for Best Actress in a Drama. Sophocles would be proud.
Since the premiere musical "Cats: The Jellicle Ball"« will open Off-Broadway in June 2024, many of the backstories are somewhat confusing. For example, Andre De Shields ( «Cats: The Jellicle Ball» ) received the 2025 Outer Critics Circle Award, Ben Levy Ross ( «"Ragtime »" — in 2026, but we never got to see a direct confrontation. As a result, De Shields holds only a 3.6% advantage heading into the evening, when they will undoubtedly face off.
Best Supporting Actress in a Musical is a difficult category to predict, as it's the only one of the eight acting categories in which no nominees have received nominations from either the Drama Desk Awards or the Outer Critics Circle Awards. However, the favorite among critics and betting leaders is Shoshana Bean ( «The Lost Boys »), so in the model it turns out to be a winner.
Prepare for the unexpected. We have six nominees, but none of them are getting 33 percent, which is the only category where that percentage is maintained this year. That makes Alden Ehrenreich ( Becky Shaw ) is the shaky favorite heading into Sunday night, with Christopher Abbott ( Death of a Salesman ) is located very close to it.
June Squibb, 96, has rightfully grabbed a lot of headlines. from the musical "Marjorie Prime"« ), who broke Lois Smith's record as the oldest Tony Award nominee in history. She still has a chance to win, as Smith did five years ago, but she faces a tough fight with Laurie Metcalf.« Death of a Salesman »).
The competition for best direction of a musical is essentially no different from the competition for best revival – «Cats: The Jellicle Ball» against «Ragtime» – but potentially with the opposite result. After processing all the data and running the model, the mathematical calculations are slightly in favor «Cats» in this competition, but only by 6 percent.
Joe Mantello is one of the awards' leading winners, with four decades of Tony Award nominations under his belt for directing and acting. But his last win was 22 years ago for directing the musical "« Killers"» . Statistically, it's time for him to take the stage again, having received his sixth nomination for directing a play.
Original production "« Cats"» has won seven Tony Awards, and this year's production is nominated for nine, and the winner for Best Costume Design will likely be a shared win for both productions. If the feline characters win, it will be the seventh musical to win the costume award in consecutive years.
Jeff Mahshi ( from the musical "Fallen Angels" »") has one previous Tony Award nomination: for Best Costume Design in a Musical,« She loves me »" ten years ago. This show was unlucky to face such an awards giant as «Hamilton» , for which Paul Tazewell won the Tony Award for Best Costume Design. Ten years later, Mahshi has a chance to return the favor, as Tazewell is in second place with Joe Turner's musical Come and Go« .
This season, Michael Arden has already made his name in unique Tony Award history by becoming the first person to be nominated for both directing and lighting design for the same musical (among plays, only Terry Hands has achieved such a double nomination for «"Much ado about nothing » 1985). Now Arden – along with lighting designer Jen Shriver – is in the lead in the award race for «The Lost Boys» .
The record for most Tony Awards ever won by a play revival is four, a record shared by four productions, including the 1999 revival. «Death of a Salesman» . The 2026 production has every chance of matching or even surpassing this record, and one of the criteria the play must meet to make history is its lighting design.
Three-story sets for the play «The Lost Boys, The '80s-inspired, supernatural-infused puzzles would be impressive enough even if they simply remained stationary for the entire performance. Add to that the fact that all the puzzle pieces must move smoothly to accommodate the flying vampire, and you have all the ingredients for Dane Laffray to win this category twice in a row, following the success of "« "Perhaps a happy ending."» .
All seven of the last Tony Awards for Best Set Design for a Play have gone to previously nominated designers, so it would be nice to see a new face on stage. The two leading contenders are Chloe Lamford ( «Death of a Salesman ») and Hildegard Bechtler ( «"Oedipus"» ) – nominated for a Tony Award for the first time, unlike three less likely contenders.
Thus , The Lost Boys« will receive awards in three music categories in a row, although one cannot discount the possibility of «Cats: The Jellicle Ball» in the sound design category. If «The Lost Boys» will win all three categories that determine the appearance and atmosphere of the stage (lighting design, set design, sound design), this will be the seventh musical to achieve this, and the first after «Moulin Rouge» (2020).
In a short history of nominations for Best Soundtrack in the Best Performance category, Tom Gibbons ( «"Oedipus"» ) is tied with Ian Dickinson for the most Tony Award nominations without winning a single Tony Award in this or any other category. It has a 58.3 percent chance of beating the night's top play, «Death of a Salesman ».
To catch all the nods to Broadway of yesteryear in Cinco Paul's script for the musical «"Schmigadun!"» , you need to be vigilant. It's worth noting that there's virtually no precedent for how voters would react to a book based heavily on an existing TV show, although shows based on films (this century's winners: «The Producers» , «Hairspray» , «Billy Elliot» , «"One day », «"The Group's Visit"» , «Tootsie» ), seem to have performed quite well.
This year, the Best Original Score category will be incredibly important, not only in its own right but also as a perfect reflection of the competition for Best Musical. The three shows poised to vie for the top spot in the Best Musical category are the leading contenders and are virtually equal in strength. We'll find out whether voters are inclined to lay their cards on the table or split their votes among themselves.
This is perhaps the most unexpected set of coefficients obtained by the model. The film "Cats: The Jellicle Ball"« is extremely popular with both critics and bookmakers. The model takes all these factors into account, but it is more impressed by its success. «"Shmigaduna! »" throughout the awards season, including direct competition for the Chita Rivera Award and no competition from «Cats» at the Outer Critics Circle Awards.
The award for best orchestration was the fourth predicted win for musical "Schmigadun!"« , but this musical is far from the only one predicted to win. If each of the favorites listed in this article wins in their category—which is highly unlikely—it will be the first time in Tony Awards history that four different musicals ( «"Shmigadun!", «The Lost Boys» , «Cats: The Jellicle Ball» , «"Ragtime"» ) will win in three or more categories.
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Whether it's a two-way race, a three-way race, or even a more open system, the announcement of the winner in each category will be a career-defining triumph for one artist and a thrilling conclusion for all of us watching.
Ben Zauzmer (@BensOscarMath) uses data to write about awards shows for The Hollywood Reporter .
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