A major climate trend involving extreme heat, floods, drought and food shortages may return sooner than expected.
The United Nations warns that an El Niño event is likely to form by September, and even more likely by November, raising the prospect of another wave of severe weather events around the world, The Guardian reports.
The World Meteorological Organization said Tuesday that oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific are shaping up for the return of El Niño, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that typically lasts nine to 12 months.
Most forecast models indicate that El Niño will reach at least moderate strength, while some still leave open the possibility of a stronger event. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that forecasters still face uncertainty, noting that "the range is wide.".
«"There are models that don't show any signs of a strong El Niño event, while others do," Saulo explained.
The 2023-2024 El Niño event was among the five strongest on record and contributed to the record-breaking global heat wave observed in 2024.
The WMO also forecasts high temperatures over the next three months in most parts of the world, along with an increased risk of both heavy rainfall and drought, depending on where people live.
Scientists typically associate El Niño with wetter conditions in parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia. At the same time, it often brings drier weather to Central America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia.
The El Niño phenomenon is developing against the backdrop of an already overheated climate caused by fossil fuel pollution, which can pump additional energy into weather systems and increase the likelihood of strong and costly extreme events.
Extreme heat increases the risk of heat illness and death, especially for the elderly, outdoor workers, and those without reliable cooling systems. Flooding can damage homes, roads, and drinking water systems, while drought can reduce crop yields, create food shortages, and lead to higher food prices.
The warning also comes after a very hot May in Europe and after the WMO and the Met Office said a record-breaking hot year is likely before the end of the decade. An El Niño could accelerate this, possibly as early as 2027.
UN officials are urging governments to prepare now rather than wait for the consequences to materialize. This includes investing in early warning systems that can alert communities to heatwaves, floods, storms, and droughts before they become deadly.
These systems have already saved lives, giving people more time to evacuate or protect homes, crops, and infrastructure. However, the WMO warned that funding remains a serious challenge, especially given that some major donor countries have cut aid budgets.
At the same time, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that the broader solution lies in reducing pollution, which exacerbates natural disasters. This means accelerating the transition to cleaner energy, protecting vulnerable communities, and strengthening climate resilience in resource-poor regions.
«"The world must treat this as the urgent climate warning it is," Guterres said. "El Niño conditions will only add fuel to the fire of global warming.".
«"The only effective response is climate action that is commensurate in scale with the scale of the crisis," he urged.
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