The idea of absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere to combat climate change may be a necessary intervention, but it has always seemed unlikely.
Unfortunately, it appears this strategy is already hitting a snag. A new report published this week finds that ongoing carbon dioxide removal (CO2) efforts are producing virtually no results in the fight against global warming and, to begin having an impact, need to be scaled up to a rate comparable to solar PV deployment.
In other words, we're not doing it on a large enough scale or fast enough. And the longer we delay this process, the more carbon we'll need to remove to mitigate climate change.
«Countries have committed to sequestering about 2.7 billion [metric tons] of carbon by 2035 and about 3.6 billion by 2050, but climate scenarios call for much more, especially in the long term,» report co-author William Lamb, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in an interview The Guardian . "This creates a gap that widens significantly over time.".
Scientists generally agree that carbon capture and removal efforts will play a small but necessary role in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit—but only as a complement to the primary goal of aggressive emissions reductions and, ultimately, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The International Panel on Climate Change considers carbon removal «inevitable» or necessary to meet climate goals, as some sectors, such as agriculture, will be difficult to fully decarbonize.
However, there's a risk of exaggerating the public's importance of this issue, thereby avoiding the need for a real revolution in energy production and consumption. For the same reason, scientists are cautious about promoting geoengineering methods such as dimming the sun, even if they prove necessary.
In any case, progress is modest. According to the report, targeted human intervention currently removes approximately 2.2 billion metric tons of CO2 annually, accounting for approximately five percent of global annual emissions. Much of this is achieved through measures such as tree planting. But new high-tech solutions, such as using machines to directly extract greenhouse gases from the atmosphere—direct air capture—accounted for only 0.1 percent of this multi-billion-dollar total.
This is happening despite the fact that these new forms of CDR are growing at a rate of 40 percent per year, as they are essentially starting from scratch. To catch up with competitors, they must develop at breakneck speed, similar to the rapid adoption of solar panels and electric vehicles, the report states.
So it's possible. But the industry is in a precarious position. As noted The Guardian , Microsoft, which purchased more than 80 percent of the new carbon credits funding these carbon capture and storage projects, stopped buying new credits in April, which could indicate where things are headed as the Trump administration rolls back climate laws and props up fossil fuels.
«"While we are indeed lagging far behind in developing carbon capture and storage technologies, it remains the only option for reversing climate change in the long term – though only if greenhouse gas emissions are also reduced to near zero," Thomas Gasser, a scientist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, told the publication.
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