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The internet seems to thrive on conspiracy theories. There are so many of them that you probably have your own favorite. Half of Americans believe at least one medical conspiracy theory, like the FDA secretly hiding a cancer cure. Maybe yours has to do with who shot John F. Kennedy. Or that the moon landing was faked. Heck, maybe you think the Earth is actually flat, and governments across the planet have been conspiring for generations to trick us into thinking it's round for some reason.
Out of context, the term "conspiracy theory" is often used pejoratively. People who believe in conspiracy theories are typically considered fringe, paranoid, and unstable. But numerous conspiracy theories appeal to people of all persuasions. They don't adhere to any single political ideology. And the fact that some conspiracy theories are true, such as the Iran-Contra affair, reinforces belief in all the other unproven conspiracy theories.
Be that as it may, there's a conspiracy theory for almost everything imaginable, and twice as many for things you've never considered. But where do these theories come from, and how do they gain popularity? Perhaps they, too, are conspiracies. Let's find out.
How Conspiracy Theories Are Born
With so many conspiracy theories circulating online these days, this provides researchers with a unique opportunity to understand how they form and spread. Research has shown that conspiracy theories tend to form very quickly if they are based on false information, unlike genuine conspiracies, which take much longer to debunk and expose.
While a real conspiracy consists of many components, you can remove any one of them and the story will still make sense. This is because it's a real event, and it actually happened. All the connections between the conspiracy elements remain logical, even if you ignore one or another part. However, with a false conspiracy theory, if you remove any of the elements, the entire story collapses, because it was never true and doesn't make sense to begin with.
A good example of how a conspiracy can be born is the one surrounding DMSO. This chemical is a waste product from paper production. Manufacturers wondered if it had any purpose, and a scientist who studied it determined that it could be some kind of miracle cure.
The FDA was reluctant to approve the drug because it was the 1960s, just after the thalidomide crisis. Drug testing was a relatively new concept, and they were reluctant to approve a new drug without proof of its safety and effectiveness. So the FDA rejected DMSO, which hadn't been thoroughly tested, and the media began to spin a story about the government banning this miracle drug. Thus, a medical conspiracy was born.
Conspiracies tend to take root most easily during times of upheaval, turmoil, and unrest. After examining more than a century of newspaper articles and letters, researchers found increased use of conspiracy theories and ideas at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, during the spread of new technologies and ideas, and then again with the onset of the Cold War. During this surge in conspiracy thinking, people were heavily focused on conspiracy theories related to communism.
While the US seems to be more prone to conspiracy theories, this may simply be a result of the proliferation of American media and control over social media. Evidence also shows that conspiracy theories are widespread across all cultures, making them a robust and reliable aspect of the human experience as a whole.
Why do we believe them?
One of the largest studies on belief in conspiracy theories identified three characteristic traits among most believers. They perceive threats and danger; rely on their intuition and express "bizarre" beliefs and experiences; and, finally, they tend to exhibit antagonistic behavior and a sense of superiority over others. We'll explore all of these in detail.
Conspiracy theories often provide simple answers to complex questions. Even if the conspiracy isn't technically "simple," it can seem extremely complex. But ultimately, it can boil down to "the government," "Big Pharma," or some other sinister reason behind the problem. This simplicity gives many people a sense of security. They feel better when they "know" why something happened. It can also provide a sense of belonging, because the believer is now part of this inner circle, the guardians of truth. This is comforting.
Tim Wise, a critical race theorist, defined conspiracy theories as phenomena characteristic of people who don't understand how social systems work. They view society from an individualistic perspective and expect everything to boil down to good and bad individuals, rather than to larger, complex systems. It's easy for such people to reduce everything to a villain, rather than considering the historical and complex traditions and systems that allow events to unfold in certain ways.
Wise also argues that conspiracy theories provide comfort in the face of things we have no control over. This is supported by additional research showing that belief in a conspiracy gives believers a sense of control, a sense of knowing something valuable and unique.
Studies have shown that people who perform poorly on critical thinking tests, especially those involving evaluating arguments, are more likely to believe conspiracy theories. Paradoxically, labeling an online story as fake or a conspiracy theory makes people more likely to read and believe other stories that haven't been labeled as false, even if they contain the same false information.
The American Psychological Association has identified a number of personality traits and motivators that can make a person more prone to faith. People who strongly believe in their intuition may be more prone to conspiracy theories, as may those who experience strong feelings of antagonism or superiority over others.
Conspiracy theories allow people, even those who are not simple-minded, to make sense of things that at first glance seem illogical. They need to understand what's happening to feel safe, and a conspiracy theory can provide that, providing a simpler answer than what may prove to be anything but simple.
While a sense of security is a motivator that produces a sense of comfort, the need for superiority also plays a significant role. People want to feel superior to themselves or the community they belong to. Those who firmly believe this are often insecure, paranoid, egocentric, emotionally unstable, and suspicious.
Conspiracy theories begin to spread among people at a young age. Of course, older people are also prone to spreading conspiracy theories, but if you're wondering when people start believing in conspiracy theories, it seems to start around age 14. As teenagers get older, they become more likely to believe in conspiracy theories. This tendency weakens somewhat in adulthood, reaching a plateau and then stopping growing.
The oldest conspiracy theories
The modern world is rife with conspiracy theories. Conspiracy theories have existed around COVID-19, Donald Trump's presidency, Jeffrey Epstein, every war America has fought, 9/11, and so on.
Of course, you can go back in time and find countless conspiracy theories about whether Tupac Shakur is still alive, whether Elvis Presley is still alive, whether Hitler's brain is in a jar, whether Walt Disney froze his head, and much more. But how did it all start?
If there's an original conspiracy theory, you're unlikely to ever find it. The first written mention of the term dates back to a New York Times column in 1863, discussing European affairs in the United States. Another mention dates back to 1870, in the Journal of Mental Science. Of course, these aren't the original sources of the idea itself. They're simply the first instances of something being labeled this way.
In fact, there are conspiracy theories dating back to the Middle Ages. Anti-Judaic theories of that time claimed that Jews had conspired with the devil to reclaim the Holy Land. King Philip of France in 1307 advanced this conspiracy theory to expel the Knights Templar, accusing them of Satan worship and sexual perversion. It worked, and he arrested them all in one night.
In the 1800s, American newspapers were filled with conspiracy theories about politics, religion, and more. The Illuminati, Europeans, witches, and others were blamed for all manner of social ills.
Conspiracy theories may seem more prevalent in the online world, but this is far from the truth, as far as we can tell. Not much research has been conducted comparing modern conspiracy theories with ancient ones, but the available data is sufficient to suggest that conspiracy theories have always been a part of life.
Spread of conspiracy theories
There's more than one reason for spreading conspiracy theories. Perhaps the person sharing the information genuinely believes what they're saying. Your Uncle Gary may well believe the Earth is flat and that NASA is hiding this information from you. But there's a second, more insidious reason.
Some conspiracy theories are born and spread with the full knowledge that they are complete lies. The goal is to sow discord, paranoia, mistrust, and chaos. There are organizations that hire people solely to act as online trolls, spreading specific hashtags, stories, and ideas designed to undermine trust in governments and institutions. They work tirelessly to spread conspiracy theories, disinformation, and outright lies.
The purpose of spreading this lie is twofold. First, it's possible that some people will actually believe it and change their minds. Conspiracy theories actually help strengthen people's opinions, even in the face of evidence to the contrary. A 2022 poll found that 291,000,000 Americans believe Joe Biden won the 2020 election due to fraud. This is a significant figure that could have serious consequences.
Another reason for the widespread dissemination of conspiracy theories is the desire to suppress and undermine trust. If social media is constantly flooded with contradictory information, the truth will always be blurred.
In one study looking at the COVID-19 pandemic and related conspiracy theories, the authors noted that people who experience national narcissism, which is defined as the feeling that one's group, in this case, one's nation, is exceptional compared to all others and deserving of special recognition, are more likely to spread conspiracy theories.
For the national narcissist, COVID-19 exposed the weakness of his nation—and this could have been any nation hit by a pandemic. It demonstrated unpreparedness and an inability to overcome the challenge. This gave rise to conspiracy theories blaming other countries, ineffective governance systems, politicians, and healthcare workers. Someone had to be the scapegoat. And these conspiracy theories spread very quickly because it was a time of confusion, and everyone, national narcissist or not, wanted an explanation and someone to blame. This allows people to defend their sacred national image, and it's easy because it confirms what they already want to believe, whether it's true or not.
Online communities allow these theories to spread quickly and extensively. The information shared reinforces the beliefs of its participants, so it often goes unquestioned. We've likely all experienced this online—we're drawn to online forums and communities dedicated to our interests, and it's much more satisfying and rewarding to see people sharing information that confirms what we already believe and consider true.
Theories originating in one forum are picked up and spread in another, and then a third, as like-minded individuals seek to inform those with whom they share their interests while simultaneously challenging those they perceive as opposing them. They gain legitimacy when shared by prominent media figures, internet influencers, and even politicians.
In today's world, social media has enabled the unprecedented spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories. These theories can be weaponized, intentionally or not, to harm people, as happened when a gunman who believed the "Pizzagate" conspiracy theory—claiming that a nonexistent basement beneath a pizzeria was a place where politicians worship Satan and sacrifice children—opened fire on the restaurant.
There's also enormous money to be made spreading conspiracy theories. In September 2024, it was revealed that several prominent right-wing YouTubers were receiving large sums of money to spread conspiracy theories and disinformation on behalf of Russia. Each of these bloggers had millions of subscribers, enabling the spread of conspiracy theories to be incredibly rapid and widespread.
Combating conspiracy theories
There seems to be widespread agreement that conspiracy theories are gaining popularity and are potentially becoming more dangerous. Directly trying to dissuade someone from believing a conspiracy theory, even if you have evidence to support it, rarely works.
There are methods for combating conspiracy theories, but they take time. One way is to focus on what people "really" believe. Conspiracy theories offer most people comfort, security, and explanations. Since believers likely interact with people and visit forums that reinforce these beliefs, they tend to think more people believe in conspiracies than actually do. Understanding how few people actually believe something, and how many believe it's true, can help bring people back to reality.
As a rule, disabling someone from conspiracy theories requires sensitivity, patience, and a willingness to not become defensive. That's why it probably won't work with a stranger on Twitter, but it's possible.
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