Last week, Super Typhoon Dolphin became the fifth Category 5 typhoon of 2026, putting this year beyond the record-breaking 1997. That's potentially good news for surfers, but not so good for the more than a million people who have been forced to evacuate cities in eastern China amid fears that heavy rains will trigger flooding and landslides.
The record-breaking year of 1997 saw 12 Category 5 storms worldwide—10 super typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean and two off the northeast coast of Mexico in the Pacific Ocean. However, in that record year, the first Category 5 storm didn't hit the country until August. The year 2026 is significantly ahead of even the internal clock of 1997. The first storm struck the Indian Ocean in February, and Super Typhoon Sinlaku, with winds of 185 mph and a minimum pressure of 890 hPa, formed off the coast of Guam in early April.
A group of surfing wave forecasting experts has ranked the winter of 1997-98 among a handful of truly iconic El Niño winters, along with 1969-70, 1982-83, and 2015-16, for producing the biggest scientifically measured waves since wave measurement began in the sport. It was the winter of 1997-98 that saw the largest Wednesday swell recorded at Outer Log Cabins, that Jaws first captured the public's attention, and that Taylor Knox won the inaugural K2 Big-Wave Challenge, riding a 50-foot wave at Todos Santos. In 2015-16, you might remember Mark Healy riding the biggest wave in Puerto Rico, or how Surfline named one of the best Super Bowl sessions in Mavericks history the "day of the decade.".
2026 is likely to match or even surpass this historic year thanks to another powerful El Niño event. The mechanism is simple: El Niño shifts storm tracks south, meaning the cold storms that generate the waves move inland over California and Baja California rather than remaining in the north. This results in huge, clear waves, free of the accompanying wind and rain, appearing in areas far from the storm's immediate center, which then crash closer to the epicenter.
«"The scientific reason is the same in both years—a very strong El Niño event—but this time there are several additional factors," said Rob Davis, chief forecaster at Surf-Forecast. Davis pointed to a decrease in wind shear. El Niño suppresses vertical wind shear in the Pacific Ocean, which promotes storm organization and intensification rather than disruption. The opposite effect is observed in the Atlantic.
«"We also have a warmer planet where climate change has been accumulating for decades," Davis continued. "Even the same level of El Niño intensity should result in more energy available for storms than almost 30 years ago." He says this is difficult to predict, as it's uncharted territory scientifically, but it could significantly impact how the season unfolds.
All of this indicates that the 2026 El Niño is likely to be stronger than even the 1997/98 and 2015/16 winters, which were the most recent benchmark winters for big-wave surfing in California, Baja California, and Hawaii.
This article was originally published on the website Surfer August 16, 2026 section «"News"» . Add Surfer to the list preferred sources by clicking here.