Scientists warn that New Orleans could become an island by 2070 and that relocation of its population may be necessary if sea levels rise to projected levels.
Louisiana is known for its low-lying terrain, so it's no surprise that New Orleans, a city of approximately 360,000 people, is vulnerable to sea level rise. The marshes surrounding the city serve as a buffer against hurricanes and storm surges, but they are also disappearing, and their continued loss could increase the risk of flooding.
Experts from institutions including Tulane University, Yale University, Florida State University and Coastal Carolina University projected in a study published in May that the city could lose 75 percent of its wetlands by 2070, becoming surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico, if sea levels rise 3 meters (9.8 feet), which many scientists believe is possible.
However, if sea levels rise by 7 meters (23 feet)—a prediction some scientists believe could occur much later—experts stated that no coastal defenses would be effective enough to protect the city. The region has "passed the point of no return," the authors wrote.
In light of the data obtained Newsweek magazine spoke to experts about the consequences of moving the entire city of New Orleans and what could be done instead.
A screenshot of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) map showing which areas of New Orleans and the surrounding area would be underwater if sea levels rose 3 meters (10 feet).
Will New Orleans have to move?
It's difficult to imagine what a New Orleans relocation would look like, as displacement hasn't been on this scale in the past. However, Hurricane Katrina resulted in New Orleans losing approximately half its population, as much of the city was destroyed and 80 percent of it was flooded.
According to Linda Shea, director of the Master of Regional Planning program at Cornell The largest number of evacuees from New Orleans arrived in Houston, Atlanta, Baton Rouge and Tampa.
However, she added, "Our existing housing buyout program has displaced just over 40,000 people over the past few decades—it's nowhere near up to the task of relocating entire cities. Relocation is an incredibly complex, often painful and traumatic process, and is rarely carried out well.".
Is it possible to move New Orleans?
So, despite scientists' warnings that New Orleans might have to relocate its population if sea levels rise more than predicted, other experts weren't so confident in the plan's feasibility.
This is partly because the city's "significant economic and cultural resources" mean that "relocating the entire city is not a viable option," he said. Newsweek Sam Brody, director of the Texas Disaster Resilience Institute at Texas A&M University, believes instead that "a more thoughtful strategy might focus on protecting existing communities through technological innovation and development-based strategies.".
Miyuki Hino, an associate professor of urban and regional planning at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, also said Newsweek , that "relocation or retreat is rarely an all-or-nothing situation, so I don't think the results are as clear-cut as this implies.".
Although she said the document showed that "there are clear and serious risks to the quality of life in the area and all possible options to address the issue should be considered.".
Zhong-Ren Peng, director of the International Center for Adaptation Planning and Design at the University of Florida, also said Newsweek, that this article shows that New Orleans "faces very serious long-term risks from sea level rise, but long-term risk does not require short-term capitulation.".
He said he does not support an "immediate relocation" of New Orleans and that "neither of the wordings - a complete relocation or maintaining the status quo - fully reflects reality.".
«"New Orleans faces a long-term development journey that requires honest recognition and proactive preparation: more effective coastal restoration, smarter zoning, and policies that will enhance residents' adaptive capacity over time," he said. "New Orleans is the center of one of North America's most strategic port systems and possesses an invaluable cultural heritage, which speaks to the merits of serious and sustainable investment in its future rather than premature abandonment.".
Moving to New Orleans - Consequences
The loss of New Orleans will have repercussions across the country. The Port of New Orleans and the lower Mississippi River complex are "a crucial gateway for U.S. agricultural and industrial exports," Peng said, adding that "the ripple effects of its loss will be felt across the country.".
Furthermore, the wetlands surrounding the city are home to a vast diversity of wildlife and serve as natural buffers against storms. "Their continued loss is an environmental crisis beyond the city's control, and it's accelerating," said Peng.
Culturally, New Orleans is also "arguably the most distinctive city in the United States—a vibrant fusion of African, French, Spanish, and Native heritage expressed in music, cuisine, architecture, and social life unlike anywhere else on earth," Peng added.
«"Culture is passed down from person to person, but the physical place that shaped and sustained it cannot be replicated," he added. "Its loss would be an irreversible impoverishment not only for Louisiana but for American civilization.".
A photograph of New Orleans at sunset, taken from a stock photo site.
What could be done instead?
Experts say there are a number of alternatives to relocating all of New Orleans, particularly in terms of adapting the city to future environmental challenges.
Brody said he would "recommend that decision makers prioritize creating a resilient city that can adapt to future environmental changes, such as sea level rise and land subsidence, rather than abandoning one of America's largest cities entirely.".
Hino stated that a combination of "engineering approaches, non-structural approaches (such as insurance, evacuation planning, building codes), and, yes, land use change in some areas from residential to non-residential could be used." "It's not about choosing one approach, but about combining them to best meet local needs," she said.
Peng said some specific priorities the city could take include a smart approach to "zoning and permitting.".
«"Stop incentivizing new, long-term construction in areas that are predicted to be subject to ongoing flooding within the normal lifespan of mortgages and infrastructure development," he said. "This single reform will be relatively inexpensive and will prevent enormous damage in the future.".
He also noted that another priority could be investing in "flexible, water-compatible infrastructure and design—what urban planners call 'adaptation' strategies—that coexist with water rather than fight it." "The centuries-old experience of Venice and the Netherlands demonstrates what this looks like in practice," he said.
Peng added that while "geological science is sobering and should be taken seriously," the appropriate response to the long-term existential challenge is "not panic or premature capitulation, but proactive, humble, human-centered preparation of the kind that has allowed human communities to thrive in dynamic landscapes throughout history.".
«"Prepare for this. Invest in resilience. Trust people to adapt. But don't give up," he said.
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